A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
